Modelling Financial Times Series

This second edition takes into account the remarkable progress made by empirical researchers during the past two decades from 1986 to 2006. In the new Preface, the author summarizes this progress in two key areas: firstly, measuring, modelling and forecasting volatility; and secondly, detecting and exploiting price trends.

Contents: Features of Financial Returns; Modelling Price Volatility; Forecasting Standard Deviations; The Accuracy of Autocorrelation Estimates; Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis; Forecasting Trends in Prices; Evidence Against the Efficiency of Futures Markets; Valuing Options; Appendix: A Computer Program for Modelling Financial Time Series.

This book is probably out of print permanently, but the author is working on a new book, the provisional title of which is "Asset Price Dynamics and Prediction" Target Date of March 2004. The chapters are loosely based on subjects covered in Modelling Financial Time series.

Chapter headings for Modelling Financial Time series:

1. Introduction
2. Features of financial returns
3. Modelling price volatility
4. Forecasting standard deviations
5. The accuracy of autocorrelation estimates
6. Testing the random walk hypothesis
7. Forecasting trends in prices
8. Evidence against the efficiency of futures markets
9. Valuing options
10. Concluding remarks
Appendix : a computer program for modelling financial time series


Rigorous but practical survey of time-series for traders.   July 24, 1996
6 out of 6 found this review helpful

The first edition was published in 1986. It is EXCELLENT. Taylor rigorously studies the use of nonlinear time-series (Box-Jenkins) methods to trade a variety of financial markets, including individual stocks, stock indices, currencies, metals, and agricultural commodities, finding that there is a small trend component in most markets that can be profitably traded. Taylor performed testing of time series back in the early 1980s, when computer power and financial data was much scarcer and more expensive. I am excited to see what he has come up with, now that computers and data are a zillion times cheaper.